Though this topic is not for the payroll site ...but every one is impacted in this situation with budgets being cut...travel cut...project on hold etc.
Some time back one of my friend gave a 5 min speech on how bad the economic situation. Some how it still didn’t make sense to me. On how bad it is apart from there are job cuts happening due to reduced sales, sales are down because corporate/individual clients are not purchasing, they are not purchasing because they believe future is bad so better save some money for bad time. While the issues which started off the crisis was on financial institutions part were taken care with stimulus package by Government. But every one is impacted, every one is panic .Their is no war, no famine, no terrorist attack, no inflation, no natural calamity, no shortage of human capital, low oil price, moderate stock price, high gold price, real estate is more affordable. What is wrong than??????????????
Last night I went into Wikipedia and searched for all known economic disasters (panics and crashes). I found total 28 of them (http://cid-95ceb06d4d2707fb.skydrive.live.com/browse.aspx/.Public/other?uc=1). I found 1837, 1873 &1929 US crashes stands out .But doesn’t show same scenario as today. Post 1929 there were almost no record of economic panic other than the current one. There was record of 10 stock market crashes b/w 1929 to 2008. There were 17 economy panics before 1929 (including 1929).
After 1837 it took 37 year for next one to happen .......but it took another 56 year for the next one..... it took 79 year for the current one. There were 3 crashes b/w 1837 to 1873......but there were 7 of them b/w 1873 to 1929....there were 10 of them b/w 1929 to 2008.
all put together....Some how it makes me feel......than is it is just another crash along with other 10 which happened after 1929 ....we are still far from seeing one like 1929 or 1873 or 1837.
I am not economist or a finance wizard but just an optimist.
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Antony says:
ReplyDeleteHarish, my view is that very few people take notice of History and even fewer try to learn from it. There is one thing in common in all of these crashes: Humans.
What we have learnt from this last crash is that it started with a good idea, something that seemed to be good for all of us as it would allow us to be safer by spreading risks. As in many things, speculation, greed, a desire to return a large investment turned a means to alleviate risks into an opportunity to speculate. Given the spread of globalisation it is no surprise that we all got hit.
There will probably other crashes and this time it will be started by different people and a different idea gone bad. IT will probably hit even more people as, by then, globalization will have increase even more. Numbers will be even bigger because a larger number of individuals will be hit. And most likely, the culprits will still get away relatively lightly with bruised egos, tarnished reputations but with a large amount of income left as we not yet found a way to punish individuals for endangering the life of others when their "crime" came from doing something completly legal (some crooks will go to jail but how many won't)
As for solutions... more teaching about morality rather than legality could be something to do in schools. More involvement from common people on boards of management could be another. This is what I am interested in: How do we prevent crashes from happening.
kind regards
Anthony
Jagan Kandasami says:
ReplyDeleteI think the root cause of this problem is greedy; over confident; misled; strong lobbying financial / banking sector. Since banking is the key working capital injector into many industries, obviously we can expect everyone getting into trouble without enough access to credit to do their business. That affects the consumer spending, then it leads to reduced productions and job losses... vicious cycle starts.... Hope i'm making sense and people think similar on this issue. The next biggest problem in the western world will be public unrest.. that might propagate to eastern part of the world slowly if nothing seriously done to prevent the further downturn. People already questions, why the normal man should pay for the mistakes / fraud made by the high paid lobbyists / bankers / builders, etc. That's very reasonable questions. I don't think common people benefited during the boom years."
Posted by I think the root cause of this problem is greedy; over confident; misled; strong lobbying financial / banking sector. Since banking is the key working capital injector into many industries, obviously we can expect everyone getting into trouble without enough access to credit to do their business. That affects the consumer spending, then it leads to reduced productions and job losses... vicious cycle starts.... Hope i'm making sense and people think similar on this issue. The next biggest problem in the western world will be public unrest.. that might propagate to eastern part of the world slowly if nothing seriously done to prevent the further downturn. People already questions, why the normal man should pay for the mistakes / fraud made by the high paid lobbyists / bankers / builders, etc. That's very reasonable questions. I don't think common people benefited during the boom years."
Posted by Jagan Kandasami
I've been thinking about this as well - here are some of my thoughts on my blog:
ReplyDeleteThe coming infrastructure boom: http://davidharkleroad.wordpress.com/2008/12/08/the-coming-infrastructure-boom/;
Five great technological revolutions: http://davidharkleroad.wordpress.com/2008/12/11/five-great-technological-revolutions/;
The next great golden age: http://davidharkleroad.wordpress.com/2009/02/17/the-next-great-golden-age/; and
Organizing for the coming boom: http://davidharkleroad.wordpress.com/2009/02/23/organizing-for-the-coming-boom/. I will also post at your blog.
Today again I faced question on when will this recession end……..while try to answer I mentioned “if I had known t\answer to that question …I would have made some good investment during this recession time when things are at low price and make good return when things go up”. That again reminded me of what I read in one of lean six sigma site:
ReplyDeleteI'll tell you exactly what I think you should do. Invest. Yep, that's right. You and I need to invest like never before. And before you think I'm crazy I am not proposing you invest in the stock market, housing market, or anything like that.
Nope. I am talking about investing in two particular things – yourself and your company.
Invest in Yourself:
Let's begin with you. Here are some tips for how you can invest in yourself.
Make something happen. You have the knowledge. You have the will. Now it's time to do something with these attributes. Go to your gemba – or the place the work is done – and attack the waste that's devouring your company. It's there. I promise. Find it… then kill it.
Learn something new. I don't care what it is. Learn something new and learn it this week.
Help others. I assure you someone has it worse off than you. Find them and help them. You'll help yourself more than you know.
Stop worrying. Lastly, worrying is natural. It's also detrimental to success. So try to stop worrying and instead start focusing on the three points above.
Invest in Your Company
Now that we have you taken care of let's switch gears and talk about how you can invest in your company.
Find something to improve. Assemble a team. And hit it. And hit it hard. Then when you're done - repeat.
Light the fire. Ever heard of the burning platform? Now is the time to light a few while pouring gasoline all over them (metaphorically speaking of course).
Ask how you can help. Not sure what you can do to help your company? Ask someone. If they don't know ask someone else.
In fact I am doing exactly the same.....I am working hard to learn Chinese during weekend.....work during late evening to get my self Lean expert and Six Sigma BB certification.....and work on Blog during 1 hour b/w all these....not to forget....I am also working tell my company how can do more with less money.